Over the weekend, while I considered the U.S. economy, equities, and business growth, I found myself conjecturing about the next shoe to drop. It became clear to me that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) foreshadows another giant reckoning for the US economy in the coming months:
These data are compiled from the quarterly FFIEC (Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council) Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income. Data for each calendar quarter become available approximately sixty days after the end of the quarter. Best we could do. In short, the shift to increased defaults are not showing up in the data.
I had the same discussion with friends last week, so I totally agree. I think banks that have disproportionately high concentrations of commercial real estate loans, or student loans, will be hit hard. I don't have any data on specific banks exposure levels, but if i did, I would short those banks. Do you have any data to support the sentence about "commercial banks seeing higher loan default rates"?
Working with Harvard's Library & Research center, we found the most recent commercial bank delinquency rates are the Fed''s from Q4’22 here:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm
These data are compiled from the quarterly FFIEC (Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council) Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income. Data for each calendar quarter become available approximately sixty days after the end of the quarter. Best we could do. In short, the shift to increased defaults are not showing up in the data.
I had the same discussion with friends last week, so I totally agree. I think banks that have disproportionately high concentrations of commercial real estate loans, or student loans, will be hit hard. I don't have any data on specific banks exposure levels, but if i did, I would short those banks. Do you have any data to support the sentence about "commercial banks seeing higher loan default rates"?