Believe the Hype: AI’s Growth is Real
It’s Not “If” But “Where” and “How Much”
This post examines the significant growth trends in the AI industry, highlighting sectors that have experienced robust expansion, those that have encountered fluctuations, and the resultant economic implications.
Preparing for upcoming panels and speaking engagements, I have looked at the defining trends of the past decade and the prospects for the future. Drawing on data from Statista for the period 2020 to 2030, it's clear that the AI sector has undergone and is expected to continue substantial growth in general and within its various segments.
You might find the following information intriguing:
The US AI market, valued at $45.22 billion in 2020, recovered from a dip in 2022, reaching $87.18 billion in 2023 — a growth rate of 64.17%. The growth of the US AI market is expected to gradually decelerate to 11.19% by 2030.
All AI sectors are trending upward, with Machine Learning (ML) and Computer Vision (CV) at the forefront of growth despite volatility, such as ML's peak growth of 113.30% in 2021 and subsequent rebound from a decline. AI robotics and Natural Language Processing (NLP) are advancing steadily, albeit with slowing growth rates, demonstrating AI's deepening integration across various industries.
The total addressable AI market is projected to increase from $0.31 trillion in 2022 to as much as $4.99 trillion by 2030, under varying growth scenarios.
The AI market's impact on GDP is predicted to rise significantly by 2030, ranging from 11.41% in a conservative scenario to 14.77% in an optimistic one, demonstrating its growing influence on the global economy.
The market size for Generative AI is expected to grow from $2.33 billion in 2020 to $65.71 billion by 2030, indicating a significant expansion within a decade. The CAGR for the Generative AI market from 2020 to 2030 is approximately 39.65%.
The share of Generative AI in the overall AI market is projected to grow from 5.14% in 2020 to 27.72% by 2030, marking a notable increase in its market presence over the decade.
In terms of the global AI market, the US leads the “Top 10” markets because it is expected to grow to $237.10 billion in 2030. China follows as the second-largest market, increasing in size from $8.89 billion in 2020 to $104.70 billion in 2030. The four "middleweight" contenders in the global AI market—Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France—have all seen significant growth from 2020 to 2030. Japan's market size is set to grow from $4.45 billion to $30.91 billion, Germany's from $5.12 billion to $29.72 billion, the United Kingdom's from $5.24 billion to $26.53 billion, and France's from $3.17 billion to $19.41 billion. Finally, Switzerland is in the 10th slot is anticipated to grow from $1.84 billion to $13.46 billion.
As evident, the growth of AI appears to be seemingly limitless, raising the question of which areas, segments or economic powers will lead. Although not every AI company is guaranteed success, as a sector, it appears that the enthusiasm surrounding AI is well-justified.
Reflecting on the past decade, the AI sector has made significant progress, with Generative AI leading the charge in market growth and GDP contribution. The United States and China dominate the field, alongside other nations that are vital to the global AI surge, setting the stage for continued exploration and advancements in AI.